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08.00 Registration and breakfast
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08.50 Chairman's welcome address
Sid Jacobson, Energy & Financial Markets Risk Management Specialist
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09.00 KEYNOTE
Trends in generation fuels markets and impacts on hedging and trading strategies
- Are we experiencing a breaking point in energy markets?
- A wide variety of factors, from economic and technological to political and regulatory, are reshaping energy markets, and uncertainty and risk are helping to shape energy choices
- The ability of the electric power industry's ability to hedge and trade needs to be preserved
Lola Infante, Director, Generation Fuels and Market Analysis, EDISON ELECTRICAL INSTITUTE
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09.40 Hedging in a volatile environment: Approaches by an end-user
- To hedge or not to hedge?
- Energy hedging instruments and how to use them
- Adopting more complex hedging tools and methods
Alejandro Gonzalez, Senior Commodities Risk Manager, BASF
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10.20 Morning refreshment break
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10.50 Getting it Right First Time: How to plan proactively for Dodd-Frank and compete more effectively than those that ‘wait and see'
- Understanding what Dodd-Frank means to the energy sector
- Identifying what you need to know about your company, its capabilities and business objectives, before preparing to respond
- Defining an holistic and integrated approach to meeting the requirements of the new Dodd-Frank environment
Shelley L. Hurley, Executive Director, ACCENTURE MANAGEMENT CONSULTING
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11.30 PANEL DISCUSSION
Dodd-Frank: What does it mean for traders and risk managers?
- How will regulators define market participants?
- Adhering to new capital and collateral requirements and the impact on end-users
- Will these reforms and pass-on costs lead to a dislocation between supply and demand fundamentals and energy prices?
- How will companies change their business models to meet the regulatory changes?
Moderator: Trey Griggs, Managing Director, Energy Sales, GOLDMAN SACHS
Gregory Mocek, Partner, CADWALADER, WICKERSHAM & TAFT
Mark Stulz, SVP, Regulatory Policy & Communications, BP ENERGY
Michael Cosgrove, Managing Director, Strategic Initiatives In Commodities And Energy, GFI
Bill Hederman, Director, Regulatory and Compliance Team, DELOITTE
Debby Young, Principal, STRUCTURE GROUP
Ben Jackson, President, Energy and Commodities, SUNGARD
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12.30 Lunch
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RISK MANAGEMENT
Chairman: Sid Jacobson, Energy & Financial Markets Risk Management Specialist
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GAS
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13.30 The impact of hedgers and speculators on long-term oil prices
- Oil price spikes: fundamentals or speculation?
- Keynes theory of normal backwardation
- Financial investors as macro-economic hedgers
- Storage operators as risk warehousers
- Modern theory of normal contango
- Possible impact of upcoming derivatives regulation
Ilia Bouchouev, Managing Director, Global Head of Energy Derivatives, KOCH SUPPLY & TRADING
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Global outlook for natural gas and implications for traders and risk managers in the US
- Impact of unconventional on North American LNG imports and world LNG markets
- Outlook, commercial and regulatory considerations for export from North America
- World price differentials and potential for convergence
Davis Thames, President, CHENIERE MARKETING
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14.10 Linking risk management and renewable wind portfolio
• Applying risk framework around a wind farm
• Interplay of risks with external drivers
• Analogies for commodity risk practitioners
• Strategies for managing portfolio impacts
Karthik Rajan, Senior Director, QS, Strategy Portfolio and Risk Management Group, IPR GDF SUEZ NORTH AMERICA
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North American natural gas basis risk management strategies
* Basis is an important cost that should be integral component of a risk management program
* Basis forecasting must include fundamental changes in pipeline deliverability, rates, and supply sources
* Technical analysis of basis is very effective and supports a unique purchasing strategy
Bill Bathe, Chief Executive Officer, US ENERGY SERVICES
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14.50 Afternoon refreshment break
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15.20 Risk management tools for trading in volatile markets
- Can VaR be used for energy trading?
- What other indicators can you use?
- Measuring the risk of long-term investments
- Monitoring and mitigating counterparty risk
- Does ownership of physical assets present other risk management challenges?
Vince Kaminski, RICE UNIVERSITY'S JESSE H. JONES GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINES
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QUANTITATIVE ANALYST AND MODELLING
Hourly power prices and shape risk premium
- Hourly price scalar estimation
- Shape dynamics modelling and calibration
- Hourly forward curve simulation
- Shape risk premium
- Risk product valuation
Zimin Lu, Head of Quantitative Research, BP ENERGY COMPANY
Kai Sun, Quantitative Analyst, BP ENERGY COMPANY
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16.00 Energy procurement risk management strategies
- Reducing risk while managing cost, credit and liquidity exposure
- Regulatory oversight of hedging activities - importance of common metrics to monitor both customer and shareholder exposure
- Operational risk - using internal audit to test controls
- Liquidity management - why it should matter to customers
Anil Suri, Chief Risk and Audit Officer, PACIFIC GAS AND ELECTRIC COMPANY
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Applying default probabilities to energy portfolios
- Understanding the probability approach to uncertainty measurement
- Appreciation of the constraints and limits
- Comparing estimators of default probability with alternative approaches
Kevin Kindall, Director of Quantitative Analysis, CONOCOPHILLIPS
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16.40 Operational risk management: The next wave of risk development
• Very large / black swan financial drawdowns are happening often outside of traditional risk management
• Unplanned generation plant outages are also a big source of large financial drawdowns outside traditional risk management
• Techniques from strategic planning and finance can play a big role in identifying and mitigating these risks
• Predictive analytics and even AI can also play a big role in identifying and mitigating these risks
Nick Cioll, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Risk Officer, TRI EAGLE ENERGY
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Credit scoring for the energy space: Practical risk measures beyond rating agencies
- Credit scoring vs. rating agencies
- Using bond implied market spreads to measure credit risk and default probability
- Using credit derivative pricing as an alternative credit risk measure
Rui Thomas, Senior Risk Strategist, SOUTHERN COMPANY
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17.20 Close of day 1
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